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Updated Sea-level Rise Projections Offer Risk and Resilience Insights

February 28, 2022

Led by NASA and NOAA, an interagency sea-level rise task force recently published a report outlining projections for sea-level rise along the United States coastline through the rest of the century. Key findings of the report justify the urgency of resiliency planning and adaptation measures being taken by coastal communities across the U.S.

Contributing agencies and organizations to Global and Regional Sea-level Rise Report

In their February 15, 2022 report Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NOAA’s National Ocean Service presented several key findings that will be particularly impactful to our coastal community partners:

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Matthew Jones Technical Manager Air Services

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Sea levels are expected to rise as much in the next 30 years as they have over the last 100 years

0.82-0.98ft

Sea-level Rise 1920-2020

0.82-0.98ft

Sea-level Rise 2020-2050

This finding is supported by previous work from the report’s authors and confirmed with increased confidence in the recent report. A rise over the next 30 years of equivalent magnitude to the rise that has been observed over the last 100 years indicates an increased rate of rise, particularly in the short term, and emphasizes the need for near-term resilience strategies, adaptation planning, and risk assessments for vulnerable assets and communities.

Sea-level rise will generally be higher along the East and Gulf Coasts as compared to the West Coast and Hawaiian/Caribbean Coasts

East Coast

0-2 inches higher than U.S. average

West Coast

4-6 inches lower than U.S. average

This finding underscores the concept that sea-level rise is not uniform on our coast and in fact has significant regional variation, mandating a more local approach to defining the extent and impact of coastal inundation projections with a view toward quantifying risk and outlining mitigation strategy.

The report is a helpful resource for understanding how sea-level rise can vary region to region. Factors like variations in currents and water density due to regional temperature and salinity play a significant role in regional sea-level rise. In addition, how lost ice mass from rising temperatures is distributed across the world’s oceans and how land subsidence or uplift resulting from glacial adjustment, sediment compaction, or even groundwater and fossil fuel extraction have a hand in regional sea-level variability along the U.S. coast.

By 2050, sea-level rise will cause tide and storm surge heights to increase and will lead to a shift in US coastal flood regimes

1/3

Major High-tide Flooding

  • 3.9 ft above mean higher high water
  • Today: once every 25-years
  • 2050: once every 5-years

The NASA/NOAA report notes that frequency and severity of high-tide flooding events will increase significantly in the near term (next 30 years). Major high-tide floods that have historically been seen as 25-year events will become 5-year events, moderate coastal flooding that happened on a 3-year timeframe will become much more commonplace, occurring about every 3 months. Nuisance flooding (minor high-tide flooding) that would occur roughly 3 times every year, will see a significant increase to 10 times a year.

These results point to a key takeaway: a refined understanding of the drivers and projected ranges of regional sea-level rise and coastal inundation events will lead to greater confidence in planning and design of adaptation and resilience measures. Woodard & Curran’s subject matter experts and engineers partner with our clients with potentially at-risk infrastructure or supply chain assets to better define the risks posed by regional sea-level rise and identify practical steps to mitigate that risk.

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